Verdict · 2026-06-02 · 05:25 UTC

Branch A — passed.

The 3-tier composite signal's acceptance criteria, committed and hashed 14 days before any outcome was visible, were all cleared on fresh forward data. This is the story, the numbers, and how to verify it yourself.

ACT

74.7%

peaked ≥5× · n=561 · median 7.05×

WATCH

44.9%

peaked ≥5× · n=735 · median 4.63×

SCOUT

31.6%

peaked ≥5× · n=658 · median 3.70×

The bar — set 2026-05-19

Four criteria, written down before any post-T0 outcome existed. The classifier was frozen and could not be touched during the 14-day window without voiding the run.

C1 — Monotonic separation

ACT > WATCH > SCOUT on the ≥5× rate, with each adjacent gap ≥ 5 percentage points.

PASSED · ACT→WATCH = 29.8pp · WATCH→SCOUT = 13.3pp (threshold was 5pp)
C2 — Top-tier lift

ACT ≥5× rate must clear 40%, derived from the frozen pooled benchmark (26.6%) × 1.5. Set from the benchmark, not from observed numbers.

PASSED · ACT = 74.7% (35pp margin over the 40% bar)
C3 — Sample & duration

Post-T0 resolved: ACT ≥ 30, WATCH ≥ 60, SCOUT ≥ 60. AND ≥ 14 calendar days of fresh accumulation.

PASSED · ACT 561, WATCH 735, SCOUT 658 · duration 14d met (sample was ~9× the floor)
C4 — Confidence

95% one-sided Wilson lower bound on the post-T0 ACT ≥5× rate must remain above the pooled benchmark (26.6%). Kills small-n flukes.

PASSED · Wilson lower bound = 71.5% (45pp margin over the 26.6% benchmark)

Verify this yourself

The pre-registration is a real file with a real hash, anchored in three independent places. Anyone can recompute and verify the chain.

1 · Pre-registration document (committed to git)

docs/research/composite_tier_prereg_v2_2026-05-18.md
at commit f25fe14

2 · Canonical SHA-256 (delete the final SHA-256 line, hash the rest)

475927cd868a574a1e0b2a4213c8824a438530cbfb195b81d3aefd7d696c6251

3 · Immutable anchor row on persistent storage

SELECT t0, sha256 FROM prereg_anchors WHERE name='composite_tier_prereg_v2_2026-05-18'

4 · The same hash, the same T0 (1779168347 = 2026-05-19 05:25:47 UTC), three independent places. Edit any of them — the chain breaks.

Why this matters

Most "alpha" accounts publish their wins. The receipts moat is publishing your bar before you're allowed to see the data. The criteria above were committed on 2026-05-19. The outcomes that scored them weren't known until ≥14 days later. If the numbers had failed we would have published that too — same standard either way, as committed. Branch A is what the criteria selected. The rates keep accumulating; live receipts on /accuracy.

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